Critics Claim Israeli Prime Minister's Era Is Coming to an End

Amidst a facade of unity among Likud's ministers and Knesset members (MKs) in support of party leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an increasing number within the party foresee his eventual departure, as reported by sources to the Jerusalem Post.

In light of the October 7 events and a growing skepticism among the party's base regarding Netanyahu's ability to fulfill promises, including the destruction of Hamas and the return of hostages, MKs are noting the Likud's dwindling performance in polls, currently estimated between 16 and 18 seats compared to the current 32.

The Benjamin Netanyahu era is over, sources in Likud say

🖊️ @BreuerEliav#Netanyahu | #israelhttps://t.co/7ufllWP0iV

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) January 18, 2024

If the Likud were to lose its status as the ruling party in a future election, the majority of its 18 ministers, excluding Netanyahu, would transition to opposition MK roles, potentially leaving many MKs unemployed.

Behind the scenes, MKs are exploring potential successors, including figures such as Economy Minister Nir Barkat, Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and others, according to anonymous sources cited by the Post.

The absence of a unified support base for a single successor within the Likud has, in part, contributed to Netanyahu retaining his position.

The Knesset's protocol allows for a "constructive no-confidence vote," but the plurality of potential successors and the failure to rally behind a single candidate make it challenging to secure the necessary votes from the Likud.

This leaves the possibility of an election, requiring 61 MKs to vote in favor of the Knesset's dissolution. With the opposition currently numbering 56, the more realistic scenario would involve five MKs from the Likud voting against the government.

Potential candidates for such a move include ministers Gallant, Edelstein, Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, as well as MKs David Bitan, Eli Dallal, Galit Distal-Atbaryan, possibly Tally Gotliv, and others.

However, the prospect of bringing down a Likud-led government, rather than selecting a successor within the party, may present a challenge for the Likud's base.

This creates a difficult situation where those voting against the government may face repercussions within the Likud and could potentially align with National Unity leader Benny Gantz in the next election.

The timing and resolution of this political situation remain uncertain, with sources speculating a political eruption within the next two weeks to two months.