There has been a lot of talk regarding how the Israeli War and other recent events would impact Joe Biden in a presidential election.
This would include the entry of one or more third-party candidates.
Well, the news is not good for Joe Biden, and it is amazingly positive for Donald Trump.
Good News for Trump
I have seen pundits and RFK himself say that he would expect his candidacy to hurt Trump more than it would Biden.
That may have been the case before RFK took a hard left turn on reparations, but it surely is not the case now.
Trump picked up two points in the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, now leading Biden 46% to 41%, but there are still 14% undecided in the survey.
If there is a 3-way race, Trump dominated, taking 39% of the vote to Biden’s 33%, with RFK snagging an unexpected 19% of the vote. In that poll, there are still 9% that are undecided.
If Cornel West stays in the race, Trump’s lead increases by an additional two points, so the third-party candidates are clearly impacting Joe Biden far more than Trump.
Even with Kennedy only getting 19% in the polls, he believes he has a real shot, and honestly, so do I. There are a lot of people not interested in either Trump or Biden, as is evident by the large number of undecided voters.
To that point, Kennedy stated, “I will do everything I can to live up to the public’s positive impression.
“I’ll do that by conducting a campaign that is courteous and respectful and that speaks to the good in people. I’ll listen to the best of what liberals and conservatives have to offer.
“Because I think that this desire for another choice besides Biden and Trump is also saying something much deeper. It is a rejection of divisive, us-versus-them politics.
“We have to change the reflex of labeling our opponents as horrible people. First, because they aren’t horrible people.
“Second, because it creates artificial divisions, and our times call for the kind of changes that only a unified public can accomplish.”
If there was ever a chance for a third-party candidate to emerge as the winner, this is the election for it to happen, and I think that will especially be the case if Trump winds up being found guilty of a felony in one of these indictments having already secured the nomination.
He will not lose all his support, but his numbers do go down dramatically, but those supporters are still not going to vote for Biden.
This is going to make for a nail-biting election either way.