Trump close to Kamala Harris in Tim Walz's home state

The tight race that is the 2024 presidential election just got a lot more interesting for the Kamala Harris - Tim Walz campaign with the results of a recent poll showing even home state sometimes turn their backs on you.

The contest may be closer than it was four years ago, according to recent polls, and it may be decided by only a few points, according to polling averages, as Newsweek reported.

Tuesday's polling aggregate from FiveThirtyEight put Harris ahead of Trump by 6 points, while Real Clear Politics put her up by 5.3 points.

In the meantime, a recent race poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which was sponsored by the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News, and Minneapolis news station KARE, put Harris ahead of Trump by five points, with 48% to 43%.

Polling Details

This would still indicate that Harris and Walz won by a razor-thin margin, but it would also demonstrate that Trump was able to win over some of the same individuals who had voted for Biden four years before.

According to Larry Jacobs, who is the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, Trump is still in the race and Minnesota might be decided by undecided voters, according to Newsweek.

"It's quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race," he said.

A respected professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University in St. Paul, David Schultz, said that rural voters are losing faith in the Democrats on matters pertaining to their communities and that they view Biden as being more moderate than Harris.

National Polling

According to a recent CNN poll by SSRS, there is no obvious front-runner in the race, with 48% of likely voters favoring Harris and 47% Trump. Two percent have indicated their intention to cast a ballot for Libertarian Chase Oliver and one percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

The majority of Trump's followers believe they are choosing between him and Harris, while the majority of Harris's supporters feel they are choosing between her and Trump.

Compared to earlier this summer, that represents a significant change in voters' perceptions toward the contest.

Supporters of Harris were evenly split between those who were positively inclined toward her and those motivated by anti-Trump feeling in the most recent nationwide CNN survey conducted in July, just after Joe Biden's presidential campaign came to an end and Harris entered the race for the Democratic candidacy.