Trump Campaign Believes It Needs Only Michigan to Win

This election is getting into the nitty gritty of it all, and both sides are trying to figure out every path to victory based on current polling.

The Trump campaign now reportedly believes that it only needs one Blue Wall state, Michigan, if it can take Nevada or Arizona, and it would have the votes it needs to win this election.

From what I can see, their map is fairly accurate.

Taking One State

The Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are now all up for grabs.

I have maintained that depending upon how Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina fall, Trump would need one, possibly two of the Blue Wall states.

A new map that the Trump campaign has laid out would have Trump taking North Carolina and Michigan (15 electoral votes) while losing PA and Wisconsin, which hold 19 and 10 electoral votes respectively.

The campaign has also included Arizona in this map, with 11 electoral votes, while losing Nevada, which has six electoral votes.

If that falls in line, Trump would have 277 to Harris’ 261, leaving several options available.

Trump could then lose Arizona but take Wisconsin, or he could lose Arizona but take Pennsylvania.

There are numerous other options available to get to this number among these states, but the key for Trump here is to win either PA or MI, then split Arizona and Nevada, just as I have been saying all along.

Keep in mind, however, that this all depends on Trump taking North Carolina, which has 16 electoral votes. If he loses North Carolina, he must take two of the three Blue Wall States while almost certainly having to win Arizona if PA is not included in that two-of-three scenario…

SCOOP: Trump campaign insiders say they are confident Trump will take MICHIGAN and its 15 electoral votes based on focus groups w/ Muslims who say they'd "never vote for a woman," and on Cornel West & Jill Stein bleeding off votes from Kamala. Stein got 51,463 Mich votes in 2016

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 9, 2024

In the most recent polls, Trump is ahead in Arizona, tied in Nevada, and a very small lead in North Carolina. For the Blue Wall states, Trump is leading in Michigan, in a toss-up in Pennsylvania, and just took a small lead in Wisconsin.

But I want to be clear… none of these leads are safe right now, but it is Trump that is trending and not Harris, so this plan is very doable.

That being said, I really don’t understand why Trump is holding a rally in New York City when he could be concentrating on these six states and hammering North Carolina to ensure a win.

He is down huge in New York right now, but he is pretending like the state is still in play.

This is just idiotic to me and a complete waste of time and money when he should be in the ground in states where he really has a chance to win.