Top analyst classifies Pennsylvania Senate race as 'toss up' at last minute

The Pennsylvania Senate race was classified as a "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report on Monday, while the Nebraska Senate contest was reclassified as "lean Republican" with the November election just 15 days away.

Three of the "blue wall" states are now in a state of uncertainty, as Pennsylvania has shifted from a "lean Democrat" to a more conservative stance, as Fox News reported.

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is seeking a fourth term in office against Republican David McCormick, who has reduced the margin to within the margin of error.

The shift is primarily due to McCormick's closing of the gap and Casey's most recent advertisement, which demonstrates his support for former President Trump on trade and tariffs, according to Cook.

From the Report

“While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.

“Though many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey, this race is now close enough that it belongs more in the Toss Up column than in Lean Democrat alongside Arizona and Nevada, which have clearly become tougher lifts for the GOP,” she said.

Unlike Pennsylvania, where both parties anticipated a close race, Sen. Deb Fischer (R) of Nebraska is unexpectedly facing a difficult challenge from independent Dan Osborn, a union leader.

Cook changed the classification of that race from "likely" to "lean Republican." Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) occupies the sole other Republican-controlled seat in that classification.

Big Changes

Hours before the ratings shift in Nebraska, a GOP super PAC controlled by Mitch McConnell's (Ky.) friends revealed they were giving three million dollars to support Fischer—an unexpected windfall in the red state.

“Overall, this race continues to be too close for Republicans’ comfort,” Taylor wrote. “While publicly Democrats deny they have a rooting interest here — and Osborn has maintained he wouldn’t caucus with either party if he’s elected — an upset win by Osborn could factor in to mitigate a loss for Democrats in Montana.”

“Ultimately, we still think the heavy red hue of the state wins out, GOP attacks on Democratic efforts to covertly boost Osborn breakthrough, and that Fischer makes it across the finish line,” she continued. “When we’re evaluating where the GOP is on defense, this race is more in line with Texas than it is with Florida. As such, we are shifting our rating from Likely to Lean Republican.”

At the top of the ticket, Fischer is also going to receive significant upgrades. A special election will be held to complete the remaining two years of the term of former Senator Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), and the ticket also includes Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), a well-liked former governor, and former President Trump, who defeated President Biden by nineteen points in 2020.