April 17, 2024

The Dynamic of Ohio Has Changed Since Obama

The state of Ohio is considered a gem in the presidential election, often falling to the individual who gets the keys to the White House.

When Obama ran for office in 2008 and 2012, he won Ohio fairly easily in both elections.

Trump changed that, however, handing Hillary Clinton a 3-point loss in 2016, and smashing Joe Biden by 8.1 points in 2020, one of the few times where the state’s winner did not take the election in modern history.

What Changed?

People who do not live in Ohio cannot understand how Donald Trump could swing a state that was so comfortably won by Barack Obama less than two decades ago.

The answer is simple… Ohio's dynamic has changed. It now leans far more to the right than it has in recent years.

How is that possible?

Well, look at the unions for starters, who have seen membership dip in terms of total employment by about half in recent years.

In 1989, 21.3% of all Ohio workers were in a union, a number that now stands around 12.5%. And we all know unions usually fill the coffers of Democrats in elections.

Ohio has also been hurt on the wages front, leading the way back in 1969 at 100% of the U.S. average, but now they are making less than 90% of the average income (this translates to workers earning about $52,000 per year).

If you really want a damning statistic, Ohio’s population only has 4.5% Hispanics and Latinos, roughly 25% of the national average.

The point is that people go where the jobs are, and all those Hispanics who are entering the country legally are settling elsewhere for work.

Workers in Ohio are fuming right now, and that anger is what Donald Trump has always managed to tap into the best.

He gets outraged, then drives those points home during his rallies and campaign stops to get other people fired up about those issues, and they are the ones who show up at the polls.

And as long as Joe Biden is killing our economy, you better believe that Ohio will continue to vote red… and that, my friends, is how Donald Trump cheated historical trends and enabled Ohio to stay red when it should have gone blue in the 2020 election.

My guess is that Trump’s margin of victory will be significantly higher in 2024 after those who voted for Biden are no longer happy with the state of their bank accounts.

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