Senate Map Takes a Turn Against Democrats

The GOP's prospects in the House may not be that promising right now in terms of holding the majority in 2024, but the Senate is starting to look up.

The state of the race in Nevada has dramatically changed the outlook for this race.

With Nevada going from leaning Democrat to “toss-up,” Democrats now face the very real threat of having the Senate flipped on them.

Making Changes

The dysfunction in the House started after the GOP took a very slim majority after the 2022 election.

What most of us would consider a disastrous election, considering the advantages that Republicans had going into this, resulted in a razor-thin majority for the GOP.

That led to an uprising of small groups, most notably the Freedom Caucus, which then had significant leverage solely because of the slim margin.

This forced Kevin McCarthy to make concessions he probably would not normally have made, changes that eventually led to his ouster as Speaker.

Sadly, the dysfunction has continued under Speaker Johnson (R-LA), so my hopes of holding the House are starting to fly into the wind unless the GOP caucus can get on the same page and start to pass meaningful legislation, something that it has failed to do since taking over.

Which brings us to the Senate races.

Republicans have been polling very well, and the reality that they could win enough seats to claim the majority is very real, especially with Nevada's status now up in question.

Biden’s popularity in the state is sagging and Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is hardly a household name.

The Cook Political Report stated, “Ultimately we are moving this race because of the unique forces at play in Nevada.

“A combination of a newer electorate that Rosen must win over, Biden’s lagging numbers, and the unique post-COVID economic hangover in Nevada make this race a toss-up.”

Republicans are putting every ounce of support they have into the campaign of retired Army Captain Sam Brown, who they hope will relate to voters and allow them to steal this seat from Democrats.

There are 34 Senate seats up for election this term, with Democrats defending 23 to Republicans defending 11.

Democrats only hold 51 seats, so the GOP has a very realistic chance of getting back the Senate to at least lock down on chamber if Trump gets into the White House.