Pollster quits after outlier 2024 poll

A once respected pollster has decided to step away from polling following her 2024 performance. 

J. Ann Selzer, however, is claiming that the two are not related: that she is not resigning because of poor polling.

This is according to a report from Politico.

Selzer announced her resignation in an article that she published with the Des Moines Register.

Background

You, the reader, may remember that, just before the 2024 presidential election, a poll was released that showed President-Elect Donald Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in the state of Iowa by three percentage points.

The poll garnered significant attention at the time it was released - the Saturday before Election Day - because it was the only poll that had Trump trailing Harris in Iowa.

Just about every other poll had Trump soundly defeating Harris in the state, just as he defeated the Democrats in Iowa in the 2016 and the 2020 elections.

At the time, Selzer released a statement, saying, "It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Selzer, of course, turned out to be dead wrong, and all the other polls were dead right. Trump easily defeated Harris in Iowa, by 13 percentage points, in the 2024 presidential election.

The latest

Selzer has faced a significant backlash following the release the poll, especially after the outcome of the election. She is now stepping away from polling, but she is claiming that it is not because of the backlash.

In the article she recently published, she wrote, "Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities."

She continued:

Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.

In the article, Selzer went on to defend her record has a pollster. She even seemed to stand firmly behind the very inaccurate Iowa poll that she released.

This has led many to ask what exactly happened here: was it an honest mistake, or was something a bit more sinister going on here? We'll leave that for you to determine.