For most of this primary season, Donald Trump was either trailing or in a tie with Joe Biden in mock 2024 election results.
After Trump got indicted the first time, he picked up some major momentum, at one point holding a seven-point lead over Biden.
That has now dissipated, and Trump is back to being virtually even with Biden again.
Polling Woes
Trump has been telling the Truth Social followers that he is crushing Biden in polling, but that is simply not true.
I religiously follow these polls to see the swings, and even when Trump was ahead, he was never out of reach.
To those of you that say don’t trust the polls, these are the very same polls that have Trump dominating the GOP field, so you cannot just pick the aspects of the poll you like, then trash the rest.
When I look at these polls, I use two sites for reference: RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
Both sites offer access to every poll taken as well as a national average of all polls.
Since January, the biggest lead Trump has enjoyed was seven points, but that was very short-lived.
Since June, Trump has had the lead in seven of the 30 or so polls that have been taken, with six points being his biggest lead.
Every poll taken since July 28 has had Biden in the lead, with the lone exception being the July 23-27 Poll by the New York Times/Sienna, which had them at a tie.
Since August, Donald Trump has not had a single poll where he is leading Joe Biden, but the margin is only one point.
In national polls for the primary, Trump is averaging +40.2, with the most recent poll, Quinnipiac, showing Trump at +39. That is down from July, where Trump was at +43 in the last poll of the month by Morning Consult.
For those of you getting ready to send me hate mail, just pump the brakes a bit and realize this is a problem, and it is one that we need to get fixed ASAP.
Joe Biden is a complete and utter mess, and people are still voting for him as much as they are for Trump, which is just baffling to me.
Regardless, the GOP needs to get its messaging down because if we lose this election, it will eventually lead to Democrats getting full control of Congress, and then we are in for some real problems.
And Trump needs to get out of this fantasyland where he believes that he is crushing Biden because it is simply not true.
