March 31, 2024

Poll: Plurality believes Trump would prevail in November matchup with Biden

Though President Joe Biden made headlines last week for his massive Radio City Music Hall fundraising take, recent polling suggests that the real momentum ahead of the November election lies elsewhere.

As Breitbart reports, a new Economist/YouGov poll revealed that a plurality of respondents are of the belief that former President Donald Trump would beat the Democrat incumbent in a 2024 matchup.

Trump on the rise

Participants in the weekly survey were asked, “Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election of Joe Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate?”

In a burst of good news for Trump, 43% declared him the likely winner of such a face-off, with just 34% saying the same of Biden.

Notably, a significant figure of 23% indicated uncertainty about which candidate was most likely to prevail.

When it comes to party breakdown, a staggering 82% of Republicans are of the belief that Trump would come out on top in a contest with Biden, whereas just 67% of Democrats believe the same about their candidate.

In terms of independents, 39% said Trump was the likely winner, with 27% giving the nod to Biden.

General election tallies

When it comes to assessing actual support for the candidates in a general election contest, Biden and Trump came in at a virtual tie, with the latter taking 44% support and the former garnering 43%.

Independent challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr. grabbed 3% of the vote tally, and among that same group, Trump leads Biden 36% to 35%.

The undecided group of respondents came in at roughly 10%, though that figure is almost certain to fluctuate in the coming months.

The Obama factor

Democrats concerned about Biden's cognitive state and physical stamina ahead of a grueling presidential campaign – not to mention another four years of service – have long floated the notion of substituting someone such as former first lady Michelle Obama as the party's 2024 nominee.

However, a recent Partners poll indicated that in a hypothetical contest with Trump, Mrs. Obama would go down to defeat by three points, adding to what was a week of largely good news for the former president, at least in terms of voter support metrics.

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