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February 16, 2024

POLL: 3rd Party Candidates Hurt Biden More

Over the last few days, Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) has gotten some attention for some comments made during a panel interview.

Manchin teased the idea of running a ticket with Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) as his VP.

This brought to light the topic of how 3rd party candidates will impact the race, and the news is not good for Joe Biden.

3rd Party Disaster

The polls between Joe Biden and Donald Trump have more or less been even thus far.

We have seen both candidates take the lead at various points, with Trump being the current benefactor of the lead.

That, however, is all in head-to-head polling, and there is definitely going to be some third-party candidates in this race, so all that polling goes out the window.

We are now finally starting to see some polling with 3rd party candidates, and the signs are not good for Biden.

In Michigan, Biden is already behind Donald Trump by two points in head-to-head polling, but he loses considerable ground when the field gets crowded.

If RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West all remain in the race, Donald Trump picks up three points, going from 45% in a two-way race compared to Trump’s 47%, to 37% in a three-way race compared to Trump’s 42%.

The cause of this is Democrats looking for another candidate, as Biden only holds 77% of his supporters, whereas Trump will hold 87% of his.

This is not all good news for Trump, however.

Polling on Trump being convicted shows a considerable percentage that will leave him and look elsewhere for a president, with varying polls suggesting anywhere from 30 to 50% of Trump’s supporters will abandon him.

If that happens, we know they are not going to vote for Biden, which suddenly makes RFK Jr. as an independent a real player in this election.

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