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October 10, 2023

OPINION: Will Israel’s War with Hamas Impact Speaker Race?

The GOP House is in turmoil right now, but the situation is calming down with the narrowing down of candidates to be House Speaker.

The timeline for electing a Speaker may have to get pushed up considering all the events that are taking place in Israel.

However, the GOP still has not identified its candidate.

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We know the GOP candidate for Speaker is going to be either Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) or Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA).

Since Trump endorsed Jordan, it is probably a safe bet that Jordan will win this election, and I fully expect Scalise to support him in full after the vote takes place.

If that is the case, there will be no drama like we had when Rep. McCarthy (R-CA) was running.

But, we need a Speaker so the House can start to pass legislation for the border and to help Israel.

Now, there is a pro tem Speaker, but his powers are limited and Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has been very quiet about those powers.

My guess is that he is just going to keep his head below the radar and hold down the fort until the Speaker is elected.

Republicans need 217 votes in order to secure the speakership.

Minority Leader Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will be the Democrat candidate, but there is no way he will win this vote.

Republicans currently hold 222 seats, so they only have four votes to spare if their candidate is going to pass on the first vote.

Unlike last time, I would suspect that the vote will not hit the floor until they are confident they can elect a Speaker on the first pass.

I have not seen any pushback at this point to either Scalise or Jordan, and Rep. Gaetz (R-FL) who led the ouster of McCarthy, has already stated that he would support either of them.

My guess is that they will nominate a candidate on Wednesday, then caucus to ensure everyone is on the same page, and then hold a vote for the Speaker on Thursday.

They cannot play games with this because Democrats will use every second wasted against this and with the overwhelming support that Israel has in this country, they simply cannot afford to be the reason that Israel lacks support of any kind from the United States.

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