NYT Polling Expert Believes Trump Underperforming in Polls

Reading the polls this year has been more difficult than ever because of the Democrats' move to remove Biden and replace him with Kamala Harris.

This gave us only a three-month window to evaluate the polls, whereas we usually have a solid six months to see trends develop.

Then there is the Trump factor, where his supporters tend not to go on the record unless they are diehard MAGA supporters, which is why The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn believes that Trump is likely underperforming again.

Keeping It Quiet

Trump has brought about a very weird dynamic during this election and the previous two.

His controversial personality and rhetoric have put a target on the head of anyone who supports Trump, so people will deny supporting him in public while pulling the handle for him during the election.

This goes to polling as well, as people simply do not want to go on record as having supported Trump.

Cohn explained, “Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters.”

He continued, “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans.

“It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again. We do a lot to account for this, but in the end there are no guarantees.”

He concluded, “Usually, the final polls point toward a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t go on to win. This will not be one of those elections.”

When I evaluate polls, I don’t necessarily look for the numbers other than to see a trend where people are moving.

In about 90 percent of the polls I have seen, Trump has had all the momentum over the last month, which is why I believe he will win this election with somewhere between 272 and 291 electoral votes.

If Trump manages to sweep the Blue Wall states, which I don’t think will happen, the electoral college would wind up being a landslide victory for Trump. Either way, I believe Harris will win the popular vote, which will once again have Democrats considering Trump an illegitimate president and whining about the Electoral College.

My real concern right now, however, is Congress. I see the Republicans taking back the Senate with a very slim margin, and the Democrats taking the House.

If Trump raids the Senate for cabinet members, as he is expected to do, the majority could be at risk, ultimately giving Dems complete control of Congress, which is going to create big problems for Trump.

My guess is that Trump’s AG will fire Jack Smith as special counsel, at which point the Democrats will try to impeach both Trump and his AG for abuse of power.

One thing I can guarantee you is that if Trump wins this election… it will be a very tumultuous four years for his administration, having every EO challenged in court and frustrated over not being able to pass any legislation through Congress.