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February 21, 2024

NY POLL: Biden Ahead, But Trump Making Up Ground

There are not too many times when you look at a poll result where you are behind but celebrate the outcome.

To that point, I bring you the latest Sienna College Poll, where Biden is leading Trump by 12 points in New York.

That may seem like a daunting number, but when you realize how big Biden carried the state in 2020 and the fact that there are still 16% undecided, we could see a blue state turn red.

Biden Losing Grip

There are two states that Democrats need to carry in every election to ensure they are in the running.

That would be California and New York, which gives them 82 electoral votes, just shy of a third of what is needed to secure the nomination.

If Democrats lose either of those, I don’t see a path to 270.

The latest polling has Biden ahead 48-36% over Trump, but as I noted above, there are still 16% undecided, which is a huge number at this stage of the game.

When you add a third-party candidate, Biden loses another two points, then only leading Trump by 10%.

Now, you need to consider that Biden took New York by 23 points in 2020, which is about the same margin that Hillary won the state in 2016.

Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg explained, “While Biden holds a 12-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, and leads by 10 points in a four-way race, it’s worth remembering just how ‘blue’ New York is.

“Democrats have a 27-point enrollment advantage over Republicans, Biden beat Trump by 23 points in 2020, and no Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984, 40 years ago.”

I will not be so bold as to predict a Trump win in 2024, but the state is there for the taking if Trump and the RNC can figure out a plan of attack to get the lion’s share of those undecided voters.

Trump will also have to steer clear of a guilty verdict in these federal cases, but that is another conversation altogether.

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