Nolte: Vance-Walz Debate Draws Trump Closer in Polls

Breitbart’s John Nolte is pushing a narrative that Senator JD Vance’s debate performance had moved Trump close to Harris.

I think that's a bit of a stretch, so we'll look at his comments and poll results.

As far as I can tell, that debate had virtually no impact on polling.

Flawed Theory

Trump is gaining ground on Harris, but that has been a trend that has been working for about a month now, long before that debate.

Nolte cites a recent Yahoo poll, writing, “The pollster writes, ‘Vice President Kamala Harris’s narrow national lead over former President Donald Trump has tightened in the wake of a well-received debate performance last week by Ohio Sen. JD Vance[.]’

“’The new … survey does suggest that the contest has shifted in a consistent direction with just one month left to go until Election Day.’

“’That is, back toward the statistical stalemate that prevailed before Harris’s strong September debate performance gave her a temporary boost.’”

In reality, national polling has barely moved in more than a month. On September 1, Harris had an average lead of 3.1%, and today that lead is now 2.7%. So, as I stated, it has been a slow trickle back toward Trump. But again, national polls mean nothing in a general election.

This election is going to come down to three battleground states and three Blue Wall states, so let’s take a look at them.

In Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, Donald Trump is now +1.3 %, -1.1 %, and +0.8%, respectively.

In the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump is -1.8 %, -0.8 %, and -1.6 %, respectively.

In all these states, the most recent polling has them at just about even, so this race is still a tossup at this point.

There is nothing to feel comfortable about, and Trump clearly needs to keep boots on the ground in all of these states, especially the Blue Wall states.

If Harris does not win those three states, it becomes very difficult for her to win this election. If Trump can take one, he is in a very good position but if he can take two, he would all but shut her out.

And for the record, from the polls that I have seen, the VP debate had  zero impact on any polls, including the battleground polls.