Only several days ago, I wrote that if Trump runs, he easily wins the nomination.
It now appears that I will be eating those words.
I am not quite ready to chew just yet, but based on recent polling, I better get the fork out and prepare to dig in.
DeSantis Soars to the Lead
I cannot stress enough that this is only one poll, but it is definitely a trend that we are starting to see as the idea of another Trump term is sinking in.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has DeSantis leading Trump 46-39 among Republican voters and 34-21 among Independent voters…
Trump or DeSantis 2024: Who would you rather see as the Republican nominee for President in 2024?
Ron DeSantis — 46% (+7)
Donald Trump — 39%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 16, 2022
DeSantis also leads Trump in favorability rating by a two-point margin, 74-72.
This comes after a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll that had Trump ahead by 14 points.
Regardless, Trump’s lead on DeSantis is clearly shrinking.
Now, Trump will dismiss the results and the polls are wrong, but let’s not forget it was only two weeks ago that Trump was touting these same polls during a rally in PA for Mastriano and Oz.
With so many of Trump’s battleground candidates failing, I think reality it is hitting home among the non-diehard Trump supporters that if we want to win in 2024, Trump cannot be the guy.
Again, you can still support and like Trump without wanting him to be the nominee.
This is about winning the election, not stroking Trump’s ego, and Trump will have a very hard time winning with there being conservatives and independents in this country that will never vote for him even though they support the MAGA agenda.
Here is the question, however, and it is a big one.
Suppose DeSantis does throw his hat into the ring and he, or anyone for that matter, defeats Trump. Does Trump take the loss gracefully and put all of his support behind that candidate, or does he take his supporters and walk away from the party altogether?
Whether Trump wins this primary or not, the reality of this situation is that he holds success or failure in the palm of his hand.
We need an answer on that from Trump immediately because I can tell you what his base is saying on social media, and it is not good.
It is far from an official survey, but from what I have seen, they are prepared to keep their vote their pocket if their guy does not win.
If they do that, I don’t care who we put on that ticket, we lose and we lose convincingly.
To that point, Trump needs to settle this issue right now, and he needs to go on the record that if he does get beat, he will support the Republican candidate.
He can even stipulate that it must be a MAGA candidate, because it will be, but he has to be on the record to start to let that settle in among his base right now or we are doomed to fail in 2024.