April 26, 2024

Narrative on Trump Conviction Starts to Flip

Early in this election cycle, there was polling done regarding how it would impact Donald Trump’s election hopes if he was convicted of a felony and/or sentenced to jail.

The numbers were bad… with Trump losing about 30% of his support, more if he went to jail.

Those numbers have since flipped, which is amazing news for the Trump campaign.

Flipping the Script

I don’t blame anyone for saying they would look elsewhere if Trump were convicted.

This was the primary reason I thought Republican voters would support Ron DeSantis, as Trump was just too risky a bet.

Even so, voters flocked to him in the primary race and it was not even close.

Having said that, polling was pretty clear that Trump would lose about a third of his voting base if he were convicted.

That is now turning as people are starting to realize how flimsy some of these cases are against him, as well as some questionable behavior by prosecutors going after him, most notably Fulton County DA Fani Willis.

The latest UNF/PORL Florida National Survey has started to show that those numbers are going down for Trump, bad news for Joe Biden and Democrats.

A whopping 67% said the conviction would have no effect on their voting, while only 24% said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

Now, that is still a sizeable chunk, but it is clearly a trend in the right direction for him.

This comes as Trump is holding an advantage over Biden in all but two battleground states, although some of those races are still a coin flip right now.

I firmly believe this election will go down to the wire, so Trump will need every vote he can get, and it would now appear that regardless of how these trials go, those voting totals are starting to grow in favor of Trump.

Don't Wait
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