Montana Senate Race Now Leans Republican, Analysis Shows

In a significant shift in election forecasts, a top electoral prognosticator now predicts a Republican tilt in the upcoming Montana Senate race.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a respected political analysis outfit, has recently favored Republican Tim Sheehy over Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in Montana's closely watched Senate race, as Fox News reports.

This pivotal change announced less than nine weeks before the election, reflects a broader trend affecting national politics. A new poll by AARP shows Sheehy leading Tester by several percentage points, both in a direct and an expanded candidate lineup.

Challenges Ahead for Tester

Tester, who first took office in 2006 and was re-elected in 2012 and 2018, faces an uphill battle this year. Montana, which leaned heavily Republican in the last presidential election, has historically posed challenges for Democrats. Tester's seat, in particular, is seen as vulnerable in a state that preferred the Republican presidential candidate by a significant margin in 2020.

According to Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, "Beyond the polling, history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side. He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election."

Tester’s Political Strategy and Presidential Influence

Despite his previous endorsements, Tester has not publicly supported Vice President Kamala Harris in her current presidential bid. His decision to skip the Democratic National Convention underscores his focus on local issues rather than national politics.

"I’m not going to endorse for the presidential -- and I will tell you why. No. 1, I’m focused on my race. And No. 2, folks have wanted to nationalize this race, and this isn’t about national politics. This is about Montana," Tester stated, highlighting his intent to keep the campaign focused on state issues rather than national dynamics.

Looking Back: Tester's Support for Harris in 2020

Despite his current stance, Tester had previously expressed strong support for Harris when she was selected as vice president in 2020.

"My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and an excellent pick for Vice President. As VP, I'm confident she will continue to fight for working families across this country. Looking forward to supporting her and @JoeBiden in November," Tester tweeted during the last election cycle.

This prior endorsement contrasts sharply with his current non-committal approach, highlighting the complexities of political alignments in election strategies.

Election Predictions and Voter Sentiments

The shift in the Montana Senate race prediction by Sabato's Crystal Ball is grounded not only in recent polling data but also in historical voting patterns that favor Republicans during presidential election cycles.

Kondik further elaborated on the potential for changes in voter behavior: "Perhaps ticket-splitting returns in force this year -- if it did, Tester could still survive. But the longer-term trend is clearly toward less ticket-splitting." This observation suggests that while Tester may benefit from his established presence and local focus, the broader political climate could impact his re-election efforts.

The upcoming weeks will be crucial as both campaigns intensify their efforts to sway voters in Montana, a state known for its independent streak but also its tendency to lean Republican in national contests.