G. McConway
November 23, 2022

McCarthy Far from a Lock for House Speaker

When all the seats are finally counted, the GOP is expected to hold 222 of them.

For Kevin McCarthy to become Speaker, he will need 218 of those seats to pull the handle for him during the Speaker election.

As it stands right now, I do not think he has the votes to make that happen.

Not on the Same Page

We knew McCarthy was in trouble when Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) challenged him.

Biggs got more than 30 votes during the nomination vote.

Now, generally, even with a challenge, everyone will respect the winner and pull the handle for him in the majority.

That is not the case here.

Biggs, along with Reps. Gaetz (R-FL) and Norman (R-S.C.) have committed to NOT vote for McCarthy.

Then there is this from Rep. Rosendale (R-MT)…

So, here is where it gets interesting.

If there are no more dissenters and the remainder of the GOP House is present and votes for McCarthy, he wins.

If any of those 218 are absent, we are headed to another round of voting.

If, however, those opposing McCarthy do not vote for anyone and merely vote present, for every two present votes, the majority vote goes down by one.

McCarthy could make a deal with a moderate Democrat group to allow them to put some legislation on the floor if they either vote for him or vote present instead of voting for Hakeem Jeffries.

There is going to be a lot of maneuvering before this vote takes place, so we will have to keep our eyes and ears open to try to see what is happening behind the scenes.

However, if I were McCarthy, I would be very worried. As is stands, he likely does not have the votes to win Speaker.

His only solace is that unless they vote for Jeffries, he will not have enough votes to win either.

Source: Washington Examiner

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