April 26, 2024

Jack Smith Unlikely to Get Trump to Trial After SCOTUS Immunity Arguments

Special Counsel Jack Smith has been struggling to get his cases scheduled in court due to various challenges Donald Trump has raised.

The most significant of these being presidential immunity.

After hearing arguments before the Supreme Court this week on the subject, it does not appear that Smith is any closer to getting Trump into a courtroom.

Not Likely

I have to be honest, the entire narrative during the SCOTUS hearing caught me a bit off guard.

I thought for sure the court would initially decide if Donald Trump’s alleged crimes were acts taken as a sitting president or distinguished as those of a private citizen who ran for office and was upset over the election results.

By the court's comments and questions, specifically the comments made by Chief Justice Roberts, that issue should have been settled by the lower courts.

During the hearing, Roberts stated, “Why shouldn’t we send it back to the court of appeals?

“What concerns me is, as you know, the Court of Appeals did not get into a focused consideration of what acts we’re talking about or what documents we’re talking about.”

That is a very big and powerful statement from the Chief Justice, which also means disaster for Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Smith’s cases are already on hold due to this claim, and if the court kicks the case back down to first decide if Trump’s actions were a crime or an act that could be covered by presidential immunity, there is no way these issues will be decided before the election.

My take on this has always been that the justices will respect presidential immunity, but it will only apply to presidential acts, not acts that would be considered those of a private citizen who just happens to be president.

Ultimately, I do not believe Trump will be given immunity in this case, but that may not matter because if Trump wins and this case goes beyond the election, Trump’s AG will likely dismiss all charges against Trump.

And if that happens, we can expect another impeachment effort by Democrats against Trump and his AG, but I am sure that is something that Trump would rather deal with than face decades in jail.

Here is a question, however, and it is one we really need to start to consider... if that scenario plays out, how much damage will be done to Republicans for the 2026 and 2028 cycle?

Trump may go free, but the GOP could be booted out of power with no hope of being able to stop Democrats in the next decade. Just some food for thought.

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