Iran's energy crisis prompts speculation about Trump's potential policy response

As Donald Trump gears up for his return to the White House, a critical opportunity arises to address Iran's escalating energy crisis and its broader implications.

Amid his expected return next month, Trump plans to reinstate severe measures targeting Iran's faltering regime, as the New York Post reports.

Iran, under the rule of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is currently grappling with a severe energy shortage, affecting its domestic stability and regional influence. Khamenei's dismissive attitude toward international support for Iranian citizens highlights the regime's isolation. Despite heavy sanctions, Iran has managed to sell oil worth over $140 billion in the past three years. However, this financial influx has not translated into economic stability or infrastructural improvements.

The Iranian regime's economic mismanagement and corruption have exacerbated shortages in essential resources like gas and electricity. This mismanagement is evident as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly criticizes the government's response to the crisis.

Impact of Low Gas Prices and Infrastructure Challenges

Iran's strategy of maintaining low gas prices to avoid public discontent has backfired, as it does not curb consumption but adds to the severe energy shortages. Furthermore, the failure to repair energy infrastructure damaged by Israeli airstrikes has deepened the crisis.

The ongoing energy shortage has led to rolling blackouts and a reduction in work hours, severely impacting daily life and economic activities. The regime's hesitation to raise gas prices stems from the fear of igniting protests similar to those seen in November 2019. Amid these challenges, Iran's currency has plummeted, with the rial now valued at 801,000 to one U.S. dollar, significantly weakening Iran's economic position both domestically and internationally.

Regional Setbacks and Military Struggles

The fall of Assad in Syria and the loss of long-range air defenses in an Israeli strike have further diminished Iran's influence in the region. Additionally, Iran's military and terror proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, face significant operational and financial challenges.

This weakening of Iran's regional power is compounded by delays in implementing vital laws and lifting bans on communication apps, which could have offered some relief or distraction from the ongoing crises.

The situation has left Iran's leadership increasingly reliant on projecting strength through its nuclear program, prompting Khamenei to threaten nuclear advancements to draw the West into negotiations.

Trump's Approach to Iran's Crisis

Contrasting with previous administrations' policies of appeasement, Trump's approach as he prepares for office is to impose a 'maximum pressure' strategy. This involves reinstating economic sanctions to cut off revenue from oil and other exports and maintaining a credible military threat to deter Iranian aggression.

"By restoring a ‘maximum pressure’ policy of coercive economic sanctions restricting oil and other export revenues while wielding a credible military option, Trump can box Khamenei in," describes Trump's policy on dealing with Iran.

Observers note that while Khamenei may tempt the West with nuclear saber-rattling, a steadfast Trump could potentially transform the geopolitical landscape by combining harsh sanctions with robust support for the Iranian populace.

Future Prospects Under Trump's Policy

"Expect Khamenei to increasingly rattle his nuclear saber in an effort to tempt the West with talks," a source comments on Iran's potential strategies. However, the success of Trump's policies hinges on his ability to resist these provocations.

"But if Trump resists the bait and marries maximum pressure with a policy of ‘maximum support’ for the Iranian people, he can flip the script on Khamenei," reflects on the potential outcomes of Trump's firm stance against the Iranian regime.

As Trump prepares to possibly retake the presidency, the world watches closely to see how his policies will reshape the dynamics with Iran amidst its profound crises.