Harris Polling Lead Evaporated with 3 Weeks to Go

Over the last few days, more polls have come out and they did not have much good news for Kamala Harris.

Harris is still holding a national lead, but only by the skin of her teeth.

In addition to her national numbers being down, Trump and Harris are now tie in just about every battleground state where Harris once had a clean sweep working.

Honeymoon is Over

Now, before I get into these numbers, I don’t want anyone getting too cocky over this because the election is far from a lock for Trump.

Having said that, as I have stated in other reports, the polls are trending in his direction.

While Harris is holding a 2.4% average lead, the ABC News poll and the Harvard poll both have Trump only down by one point, with the NBC News poll having them in a dead heat. At this point, Harris could actually lose the popular vote if she continues to nosedive.

As far as the Electoral College goes, there is still some serious concern for Trump.

In order for Trump to have a relative clear path to 270, he has to win Georgia and North Carolina. Right now, Trump has no more than a 1% lead in North Carolina, a state that is traditionally close but generally falls red. If Trump loses North Carolina, I don’t see him winning this election.

Trump will also need Georgia, although some other states could make up the difference he can pull an upset. The last two polls have Trump up by 1% and 3%, with Trump having trailed Harris in the last WSJ poll, so he is trending in the right direction here.

If Trump can win those two states, he really only needs two more battleground states to lock down a win unless Harris pulls a major upset in a red state.

Trump would have to split Arizona and Nevada, and Trump is creating some serious cushion in Arizona right now, leading between 3% and 5% in most polls.

If that also holds, then Trump only needs to win Michigan or Pennsylvania and he would get the nod.

Harris once had a 3.4% edge in Michigan, but again, that is gone. In three of the last four polls, including the last two, Trump is ahead or tie. The only exception being an ActiVote poll that had Harris up 2%.

Trump and Harris continue to exchange blows in Pennsylvania, with Trump being up 2% in one poll, and down 4% in another. I think this state is still a toss-up, so Trump needs to spend time in both of these states as well as North Carolina to get a win.

Again, I am still not ready to call this race, and probably won’t be until just before election day, but right now, all the trends are pointing to Trump.