Harris Gets No Bump from National Convention

Kamala Harris’ presidential run is already unprecedented, but now there is something else to put on that list.

Most candidates receive a rather significant bump after the national convention is over, but that did not happen for Harris.

As a matter of fact, Trump has actually made up some ground.

Going the Wrong Way

On August 23, Harris was at the height of her popularity, leading Trump by 3.7% on the national average, but that advantage is now down to 3.2%.

If we go back to individual polls during this time, Big Village had Harris up by 7%, Suffolk University had Harris up by 5%, and Outward Intelligence had Harris up by 6%.

In the most recent poll listed, ActiVote, Harris is only leading Trump by 2%. In the TIPP Insights poll taken a week earlier, Harris was only leading Trump by 4%, so she is clearly trending the wrong way.

Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates, stated, “The race between them remains close, with no overall bounce in support for Harris out of her nominating convention.”

Harris has gained support among women, which would be expected, but she has lost significant support among male voters.

But, we all know this comes down to battleground states and not national polling.

The three most important states right now are the Blue Wall states of PA, MI, and WI.

On August 24, Harris led Trump by 3.4% in Michigan, but that lead has been cut down to 2.4% on the national average, and the most recent Trafalgar poll had them dead even at 47% each.

On August 15, Harris had her biggest lead in PA, ahead by 2.3%, but that lead is now down to 1.2%, with the most recent Emerson College poll having them deadlocked at 49%.

On August 22, Harris was beating Trump by 3.8% in Wisconsin, but that lead is now also down, at 3.2%. And again, the most recent Trafalgar Group survey now has Trump ahead 47-46%, and the most recent Emerson College poll had Trump ahead 50-49%.

The Trump-Biden debate was big because it knocked Biden out of the race, but this upcoming debate between Harris and Trump is going to be just as big.

Harris is already trending the wrong way, but the decline is not as sharp as we would like to see.

If she blows this debate the way we think she will, I think we are going to have a brand new race come the first set of post-election polling.

As I have stated before, give me until early October, and I think I can give you a very realistic opinion of how this election will fall.