Harris Faces Tougher Fight in MN as Trump Gains Independent Support

The selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Kamala Harris's running mate for the 2024 presidential election has put the state in the spotlight as a potential electoral battleground.

Once considered a reliable state for Democratic candidates, the latest polling indicates a tightening race in Minnesota, with Kamala Harris now holding only a narrow lead of just over four points over Donald Trump, as the New York Post reports, casting doubt on Walz's value to the ticket.

Walz's addition to the Harris ticket was expected to boost the Democratic campaign in Minnesota. However, a MinnPost-Embold Research poll conducted between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8 reveals a different story. Despite 50% of voters in Minnesota approving of Walz, his presence on the Democratic Party ticket has not significantly shifted the race in Harris's favor. This indicates that while Walz may be popular among Minnesotans, the boost he was expected to provide has not yet materialized.

Trump Draws Strong Support from Independent Voters

Independent voters, often key in battleground states, are showing an unexpected preference for Trump. The poll reveals that 40% of independents are backing Trump, compared to just 23% supporting Harris. This nearly two-to-one ratio is one of the reasons Trump remains competitive in Minnesota, despite the state’s history of favoring Democratic candidates.

In the 2016 election, Trump lost Minnesota to Hillary Clinton by fewer than 45,000 votes. This close margin has fueled hopes among Republicans that they could flip the state in 2024. Additionally, third-party candidates, who drew nearly 9% of the vote in 2016, could play a significant role in determining the outcome of this year’s election. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, for example, received nearly 4% of the vote in Minnesota that year, which may have impacted the final results.

Harris Struggles to Expand Beyond Urban Areas

The Harris-Walz campaign is dominating in the state's urban centers. According to the poll, Harris has overwhelming support in Minneapolis and St. Paul, where she leads Trump by 73% to 21%. These urban areas have historically leaned Democratic, and their continued support for Harris is essential for the Democratic ticket.

However, outside of the Twin Cities, the race is much more competitive. Trump holds a slight lead in the surrounding counties and has a commanding 28-point lead in Greater Minnesota. These rural areas, which are critical in statewide elections, could be the deciding factor in this tight race.

Poll Shows Smaller Margin Than Previous Surveys

The most recent poll also reveals a narrowing gap between Harris and Trump compared to earlier surveys. A previous poll had Harris leading by five points, indicating that the race has tightened slightly in recent weeks. This shift, combined with the growing support for Trump among independent voters, suggests that the Harris campaign may face tougher challenges in Minnesota than initially anticipated.

Walz's presence on the ticket was expected to solidify Harris's standing in Minnesota. However, the current data suggest that while Walz's approval rating of 50% keeps him favorable among voters, it is not enough to deliver the decisive advantage Harris needs. As one political analyst noted, “While the 50% of Minnesota voters who like him in this poll save him from being underwater in his home state, he doesn’t seem to be delivering the bump needed for a historic victory.”

Enthusiasm for Harris Remains a Concern

Despite the state’s D+7 voter registration advantage, enthusiasm for Harris appears to be lower than many Democrats hoped. This could be a critical factor as Election Day approaches. Polling shows that while Harris maintains strong support in Democratic-leaning areas, her campaign has not generated the kind of excitement that could translate into high voter turnout.

As Minnesota continues to see close margins between the candidates, voter turnout will likely play a significant role in determining the outcome. With Trump gaining ground among independents and maintaining a strong showing in rural areas, Harris will need to work harder to maintain her lead.

Debates Could Play Key Role in Outcome

With the first and perhaps only presidential debate having taken place, both campaigns are assessing its ultimate impact on the race. The vice-presidential hopefuls are also set to square off in early October in what will be another closely watched event.

The results of the debates could have a significant effect on the final days of the campaigns. Both Harris and Trump will be looking to solidify their support bases while appealing to the remaining undecided voters, especially independents, who appear to be leaning toward Trump at this stage.