G. McConway
July 18, 2023

Are Democrats Hoping Biden Loses in 2024?

That may not be the right title for this article, but I don’t think it is that far out of step.

Watching the moves being made by Democrats, I think, while not hoping to lose, they will be okay with it.

There are several reasons why I now believe this to be the case.

We’ll Be Okay

First, let’s look at Congress…

If you look at the third mid-term election for an incumbent president, it is brutal in terms of holding a majority in Congress. If Biden wins, 2026 would be that mid-term, and Democrats are already on the short stick here, so a massive loss could result in a supermajority in both the House and Senate, which would be devastating, making Biden a lame duck and turning all power, including veto power and overriding veto power, to the Republicans.

Biden is barely campaigning right now and the cash registers are not exactly blowing up for grassroots fundraising. This appears to be, more or less, a campaign that will be run on megadonors.

Then look at polling

Biden is well underwater, but he is still managing to hold his own against Trump, albeit by a very narrow margin.

According to a recent New York Post report, Biden is not even winning every poll, and we all know how the polls underestimate Donald Trump’s national appeal, so these races may be much closer than they already appear, which means it is a roll of the dice for Democrats.

Finally, if Trump does get the nod and he does win, there is enough resistance in the GOP that Trump will not get his way on every issue, even if the GOP takes back the Senate and holds the House.

The beauty of this for Democrats is that if Trump wins the election, the Democrats would likely take back the House in 2026 because mid-terms in the first term are deadly for a new president. When you look at the alternative, which is the GOP getting a supermajority, some Dems may prefer four more years of Trump.

The other benefit is that come 2028, it is all even again… Trump would not be able to run, so it would be a fresh race for the GOP and Democrats.

My take… Democrats are riding the train that there are enough voters that will not vote for Trump simply because he is Donald Trump. That does not mean they will vote for Joe, but they will sit on the sidelines.

I am already on record saying that if this is Trump-Biden 2.0, it will be a low-energy voter turnout, which could also impact major Senate and House races.

All things considered, Joe Biden losing may not be the worst thing for the Democrat Party.

What throws a wrench into this entire thought process is if someone like Ron DeSantis wins the primary, giving the GOP a straight 8-year run in the White House, which would be devastating for the Democrat Party.

Again, though, I think with where Trump is in primary polling right now, the party is willing to roll the dice and hope for the best, or worst, with Biden.

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