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February 28, 2024

Anti-Trump Republican Way Behind in Michigan Senate Primary Race

The first round of polls for Michigan’s August 6 Senate primary race are out and it is not good news for Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI).

If that name sounds familiar, it should… as he is one of a handful of Republicans who voted to impeach Trump.

Meijer is trailing former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), who currently has 23 percent of the vote.

Way Behind

The bad news for Meijer is that the Marketing Resource Group (MRG) poll has him 16 points behind Rogers.

The good news is that the poll also had 62% of likely Republican voters still undecided.

MRG owner Jenell Leonard analyzed the polling, stating, "Most of Rogers’ support comes from Southeast and Mid-Michigan where favorable TV ads promoting Rogers’ experience as a military veteran and former law enforcement officer have been playing for several weeks.

“The outside efforts to brand Rogers as the candidate that has the knowledge and experience to secure the border and bridge the political divide in D.C. is resonating with voters.”

There is more bad news for Meijer, however, and that is that he last lost five points since an earlier poll was taken only last week.

The Target Point poll that was taken on February 17 had Meijer at 12%, so his support is clearly dwindling.

If we look at polling for the top candidates in the race, Rogers is now within earshot of Rep. Slotkin (D-MI) who is running for the seat on the other side of the aisle.

In the EPIC-MRA poll, Slotkin has a razor-thin margin, leading 39-38.

Right now, both Senate seats in Michigan are occupied by Democrats, but Senator Debbie Stabenow, 73, has decided to retire after holding down that seat for more than two decades.

Trump has not yet endorsed anyone in this race, but there are quite a few former Trump staffers still in the good grace of Trump that have gotten behind Rogers, including Trump’s former Acting Director on National Intelligence, Richard Grenell.

Rogers is also putting out all the right rhetoric to draw Trump in, telling Grenell after the endorsement, “I appreciate your friendship and I am honored to receive your endorsement as we continue to unite to Get America Back on Track!”

My guess here is that if Rogers has a sizeable lead heading into the primary election and looks like he will have a decent shot of winning the general, Trump will get on board a few days before the primary to pad his endorsement record.

As close as the polling is right now for the general election, this could become a pivotal seat for Senate control, so I would expect the RNC and Senator McConnell (R-KY) to pour considerable resources into the election in order to steal this seat from Democrats.

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