Analyst: Harris Lead Not as Solid as It Appears

Ever since Harris was introduced as the new Democrat nominee, polling has swung in her favor.

I have been pretty honest about this, stating that it was to be expected, and that we really would not see a realistic poll until about mid-September.

Having said that, I also believe that the RNC and Trump needed to pick up the pace, but analyst Mark Halperin believes he is already seeing a trend favoring Trump.

Watch the Cycle

Understanding polls is all about watching the cycle and trends.

Right now, Harris has all the momentum and I had even predicted that would be the case until she and Trump debate on September 10.

With the rules as they are, I think Trump will beat Harris, so that will likely be the one and only time we see them debate.

If Harris gets embarrassed like Biden did, there is no way she will debate Trump again unless she gets to write the rules.

I have seen some trends in polling where Trump is starting to get a small bounce back, but if I am being honest, I am still worried it is not enough, especially with Harris currently leading in PA, MI, and WI, the key Blue Wall states that she needs to win.

Halperin is seeing other signs that he likes for Trump, stating, "There’s some public polling already, there’s more coming. There’s some private polling that suggests that nationally in the battleground states, she’s not ahead.”

He added, "And there’s some battleground states now where I think Donald Trump, on this trajectory, is going to be ahead."

Halperin also reiterated my belief that we will not really have honest polling until mid-September, stating, "And it may be, regardless of what happens in the interview and regardless of what happens in the debate—it may be that by the middle of September, when things have calmed down, when the Trump campaign has had time to prey on some of the weaknesses that I suggested—that he’s ahead in all the Sun Belt states.”

My main concern right now is that early voting starts in a week, several days before that debate, which is not good for Trump.

If early voters still have a positive outlook on Harris, we could see her get some extra votes early on, but it will only be for a few days, so all is not lost here.

If I were Trump, I would be hammering PA, MI, and WI over the next two weeks until that debate to try to gain some ground back.

If Trump can take two of those three states, simply put, Harris has no path to 270. However, if she wins those three states, it will be virtually impossible for Trump to win this election.