Has Kari Lake Come Back from the Dead?

Lake, after having failed in the last Arizona gubernatorial election, decided to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Senator Sinema (I-AZ).

Throughout this election cycle, Kari Lake has been getting crushed by Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in polling.

Suddenly, the last two polls show her dead even with Gallego.

Storming Back

Lake started this election cycle off behind, trailing Gallego by three points in August.

Polling then started to really tank, with Gallego opening up a 14-point lead in September.

As a matter of fact, that lead had held between four and eight points for most of October, until now.

Just a week ago, Lake was trailing by eight points in a Marist poll, eight points in a CNN poll, four points in a Trafalgar poll, and 15 points in a RABA Research poll that was closed on October 27.

Then, in a Data Orbital poll that closed on the 28^th and an AtlasIntel poll that closed on the 29^th, she is suddenly dead even with Gallego.

Now, AtlasIntel polls have been Republican-friendly, but I have not seen enough of the Data Orbital polls to get a feel for how they are weighted. Regardless, this seems like a significant shift.

Lake has been far underperforming compared to Trump in Arizona, where Trump has either led or tied with Harris in most polls.

Having looked at all polling for both candidates, I tend to believe these are outlier polls, but I could be wrong, and Lake’s campaign is clearly buying the idea that this is the current trend.

A Lake spokesperson stated, “The momentum is with President Trump and Kari Lake, and with record Republican early voting numbers, we are confident that Arizonans will deliver both Trump and Lake a victory one week from today on November 5^th.”

I have regularly stated that I believe Lake was the wrong candidate for this state, as she is too far right for a state that is clearly moderate.

If Lake wins this election, I will gladly eat my plate of crow, but this is about far more than that.

If Lake wins, this shows a significant shift in the state's voter base. So, I have to admit that, aside from the presidential race, this has now become one of the top races for me to follow in this election.