Trump Insiders Confident Trump Will Win Michigan

RealClearInvestigations reporter Paul Sperry claims to have a huge scoop in the presidential election.

According to Sperry, Trump’s internal polling has Trump winning Michigan.

If that is the case, and Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina, he would only need to split Nevada and Arizona to win the election.

Laying It All Out

Sperry posted the “scoop” on X this week…

SCOOP: Trump campaign insiders say they are confident Trump will take MICHIGAN and its 15 electoral votes based on focus groups w/ Muslims who say they'd "never vote for a woman," and on Cornel West & Jill Stein bleeding off votes from Kamala. Stein got 51,463 Mich votes in 2016

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 9, 2024

Now, there are some rather significant assumptions being made with that map.

First and foremost, Trump would have to win Georgia and North Carolina, which are not a given.

In current polling, Trump is leading Harris by one or two points, and he is up in the national average by 0.8%, so that is far from a lock right now.

Trump has a 0.9% lead in North Carolina for the average of all polls, and in the last three polls, Trump has a one-point lead, but he was trailing by two points in the poll that preceded those.

Again, North Carolina is far from a lock, but Trump is trending in both states, so, for now, it looks good.

If those two states hold, and if Trump can split Nevada and Arizona, which seems likely, he would only need to win Pennsylvania or Michigan to lock up the election.

The assumption here is that Trump will win this state now because of the heavy Muslim population which, according to Sperry’s report, will not support a female candidate for president.

So, I went back and checked the 2016 election, where Trump won the state by less than 11,000 votes. That race was very similar, with Gary Johnson running on the Libertarian ticket and Jill Stein running on the Green ticket.

The difference in this ticket, however, is that Cornel West, who is black, will be on the ticket instead of Johnson, who is white.

Will Muslims vote for Trump over West? That is likely the question that will dictate the winner of the state if the Trump polling is correct.

There are about 200,000 Muslim voters in the state, so this is clearly enough to swing the vote in someone’s favor, but will it be Trump’s?

I should note that roughly 70% of the Muslim population voted for Biden in 2020, so Trump may not even need their vote, as long as they don’t vote for Harris.